
Source - National Weather Service
Case Study in Loss Events – The Richmond Virginia Natural CAT Loss Hat Trick
The axiom I learned “Garbage in Garbage Out” is as true today as it was my first day in a college computer class in 1980 while working with punch cards. The solution is only as reliable and credible as the inputs including anticipated events, values, likelihood, and severity.
A key component of risk management is the evaluation of risks that might occur during the course of the year which might impact, either on their own or in conjunction with other risks, the organization causing a reduction in cash flow, the impairment or destruction of physical assets, a disruption to the supply chain, or damage to raw materials, stock, etc.
The input from multiple team members provides insights that might be overlooked by a smaller team. It also provides needed creativity to see possibilities from multiple perspectives. Working collaboratively the team can evaluate the probability of events including both frequency and severity faced by the organization. Even the improbable risk and or combination of risks, as unlikely as they may be, need to be evaluated as part of the exercise and either recognized or disregarded based on total value.
The Richmond Virginia “Hat Trick” is a perfect example of what can be missed when evaluating property claim scenarios and loss probabilities from natural events if there is a lack of collaboration and creativity in anticipating such events.
Over the course of sixteen (16) days central Virginia, during the period August 23, 2011 and September 8, 2011, was hit by no less than three (3) separately occurring natural events causing significant amounts of property damage, some of which is likely to have a negative effect on insurer financials during the second half of 2011:
- August 23, 2011 – a 5.8 magnitude earthquake rattles Richmond the epicenter in Mineral Virginia some 50 miles to the West; quake is felt north into Canada, west into Illinois, and south into Georgia. It will be the largest earthquake in Virginia over the last 150 years. Several 5.0 aftershocks will be felt. There will be some significant localized damage. The quake forces the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to keep the North Anna Nuclear Power Plant offline as quake damage continues to be assessed and repaired. The National Cathedral in Washington DC remains closed and expects needed repairs to be approximately $25 million. Also remaining closed is the Washington Monument which suffered cracks from the earthquake that allowed water intrusion from subsequent weather events.
- August 27, 2011 – The remnants of Hurricane Irene move through Richmond knocking power out to nearly 2.5 million with winds in excess of 65 MPH damaging homes and businesses nearly 100 miles inland. Power is finally restored to all after by September 7th.
- September 6-8, 2011 – A combination of weather events including the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee dumps 10 inches of rain and more in other areas of the region creating flash floods, collapsing roads and bridges and opening sink holes damaging homes. Damage and rainfall amounts become greater as the storm moves northward into Pennsylvania, and into Vermont.
When evaluating risk all events regardless of how remote need to be evaluated. While these three (3) events within sixteen (16) days were somewhat improbable they did happen and should serve as a lesson for the evaluation of future risks which might be significantly more costly.
The Insurance Information Institute has prepared an analysis of the negative impact that CAT claims have had on 2011 first half carrier results at the following link: http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2011/09/22/2011-cats-create-case-study-for-risk-management
A copy of a presentation made by Dr. Robert Hartwig, President, Insurance Information Institute entitled “Global Economic Turmoil, Catastrophic Loss and Insurance: Implications for Risk Management & Marine Insurance Markets: Download (PDF, 4.65MB)